The Egyptian Association for Community Participation Enhancement (EACPE)
Nawara Magdy Belal
Yasmine Sherif Ismail
Although official reports continue to emphasize that Egypt is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the country has shown only limited progress on some of these. In the midst of the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Egypt should embark on some profound changes and adopt radical development strategies to move towards fulfilling the internationally agreed goals. This requires development assistance to be more efficiently managed, while employment targeted projects should be increasingly negotiated and encouraged, along with more partnership with private sector and civil society.
According to the Kuwaiti financial investment firm Global Investment House, the impact of the global economic crisis is now being felt in Egypt, although "Egypt’s healthy economic growth, along with the implemented reform is believed to protect the country’s economic performance throughout the concurrent global crisis.” True, the Egyptian economy has preserved its real GDP growth, which stood at 5.8% during the first quarter of fiscal year 2008-09 (July-September 2008), compared to the 6.5% achieved in the first quarter of fiscal year 2007-08. However it must be noted that the Government set a lower GDP growth target of 5.5% for fiscal year 2008-09, after realizing growth of 7.2% in fiscal year 2007-08. For fiscal years 2008-09 and 2009-10, respectively, the World Bank has forecast GDP growth rates of 4.5% and 6.0%.[1]
But is the crisis affecting the country’s progress in achieving the MDGs? According to an MDG midpoint assessment report, issued by the Ministry of Economic Development, the country is “on the right track to realizing most of the Millennium Development Goals by the set date of 2015.”[2] According to Egypt's Minister of Economic Development, Othman Mohamed Othman, “geographic targeting and other integrated social policies promise to reduce regional lags and gaps…and to also ensure the full realization of national MDG goals in all of Egypt.”[3] Regarding poverty reduction, the Minister announced that "the poverty rate has fallen from 31% to 26% in rural areas and from 13% to 8.6% in urban areas."[4] These figures however were denied by Gawdat el-Malt, president of the Egyptian Central Audit Agency, who reported that "poverty is estimated at 40% in rural areas and 18% in urban areas."[5]
Poverty is not only about income
These contradictory measurements are both based on income levels. However, poverty is not just about income and there are other major aspects to be considered, such as health, hygiene and social exclusion. Thus, composite measures, such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Human Poverty Index (HPI), which focus on the proportion of people living below certain thresholds in each of the dimensions of the HDI, should be taken into account.
In its Egypt National Report 2008, the UNDP highlighted seven guidelines that the Egyptian Government should take into account in order to achieve pro-poor economic growth:[6]
The 2009 Human Development Report ranks Egypt 82nd among 135 countries for which the index has been calculated. The poverty index measures severe health deprivation by the proportion of people who are not expected to survive to age 40. Education is measured by the adult illiteracy rate. And a decent standard of living is measured by the un-weighted average of people not using an improved water source and the proportion of children under age five who are underweight for their age. Chart 1 shows the values for these variables for Egypt and compares them to other countries".
Selected indicators of human poverty |
||||
Human Poverty Index |
Probability of not surviving to age 40 |
Adult illiteracy rate |
People not using an improved water source |
Children underweight for age |
1. Czech Republic (1.5) |
1. Hong Kong, China (SAR) (1.4) |
1. Georgia (0.0) |
1. Barbados (0) |
1. Croatia (1) |
80. Solomon Islands (21.8) |
68. Georgia (6.7) |
117. Angola (32.6) |
28. Costa Rica (2) |
40. Macedonia (6) |
81. Botswana (22.9) |
69. Vanuatu (7.1) |
118. Congo (Democratic Republic of the) (32.8) |
29. Armenia (2) |
41. Barbados (6) |
82. Egypt (23.4) |
70. Egypt (7.2) |
119. Egypt (33.6) |
30. Egypt (2) |
42. Egypt (6) |
83. Vanuatu (23.6) |
71. Ecuador (7.3) |
120. India (34.0) |
31. Jordan (2) |
43. Mongolia (6) |
84. Congo (24.3) |
72. Bahamas (7.3) |
121. Ghana (35.0) |
32. Montenegro (2) |
44. Panama (7) |
135. Afghanistan (59.8) |
153. Lesotho (47.4) |
151. Mali (73.8) |
150. Afghanistan (78) |
138. Bangladesh (48) |
Source: Human Development Report 2010.
The figures in the Chart 2 clearly demonstrate that economic growth is not necessarily reflected in the quality of life. The country’s failure to ensure that increased economic growth is reflected in the living standards of its citizens represents the main challenge that the Government will have to face in the next five years in order to realize the MDGs by 2015.[7] This means rethinking its financing for development strategy in the context of an economic crisis that has globally become a main obstacle for development.
Progress in achieving the MDGs
The midpoint assessment of the MDGs for Egypt shows that the country in not strictly “on track,” that challenges remain very severe and that, in some areas, especially with regard to the gender gap, the country’s performance is very poor. Following is a goal-by-goal assessment.
Impact of the global financial crisis
Although net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was only USD 3.9 billion in fiscal year 2004-05, in 2007-08 period this figure reached USD 13.2 billion. But in the last fiscal year – with the global economy in disarray – net FDI fell to USD 8.1 billion, according to Egypt’s central bank. Furthermore, a report on economic performance for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2009-10 by the Ministry of Economic Development shows that the number of unemployed has risen to 2.37 million people.[9]
As shown by these figures, the year 2010 may decelerate Egypt’s progress towards achieving MDGs by the year 2015. In order to avoid such a risk, it is imperative to:
[2] Ministry of Economic Development, Millennium Development Goals Report 2008- Egypt, Achieving the MDGs: Midpoint Assessment, 2008. Available.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Egypt.com News, 10 April 2010. Available from: <www.news.egypt.com/en/201003239929/news/-egypt-news/mps-egypt-govt-disagree-over-poverty-rate.html>.
[5] Ibid.
[7] Egypt.com News, 10 April 2010. Available from: <news.egypt.com/en/201003239929/news/-egypt-news/mps-egypt-govt-disagree-over-poverty-rate.html>.
[8] Millennium Development Goals Report 2008. Egypt, op. cit.
[9] Egypt News, 21 February 2010. Available from: <www.news.egypt.com/en/201002219351/news/-egypt-news/report-over-2-million-egyptians-unemployed.html>.
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